Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
